Sample Strategic Memo
A representative Cato deliverable. Race details are illustrative. To be hosted on catoconsultinggroup.com.
A Sample Strategic Memo
The Mail Ballot Chase
A diagnostic, universe sizing, and strategic recommendation for a competitive statewide general election in a major battleground state
Sample deliverable
By Cato Consulting Group
Illustrative — race details fictionalized
A note on this document
This is a representative example of a Cato strategic memo. The race, candidates, and specific data are fictionalized — but the structure, diagnostic methodology, and visual treatment match what we deliver on a live engagement. This is what hiring Cato actually produces. Every claim in a real memo is sourced. Every model assumption is adjustable. Every recommendation is calibrated to the actual statutory environment of the state in which the campaign is running.
In a state the Republican presidential nominee carried by double digits last cycle, how is the gubernatorial race a coin flip — and what is the largest controllable variable left between today and Election Day?
— The premise of this memo
A statewide general election that should, on paper, favor the Republican candidate has been quietly recalibrating. Independent ratings have moved from Likely R to Lean R. Polling averages show the race inside the margin of error. The Democratic primary turned out a meaningfully larger share of voters than the Republican primary on the same ballot. A coordinated Democratic mail and field operation is running alongside a top-of-ticket federal race, layering organizational depth onto record-setting fundraising. The race turns on margin, and the largest controllable margin is the absentee and early-vote universe.
Executive Summary
Three things to take from this memo.
I. The Threat
In a state the Republican presidential nominee carried by double digits, independent ratings have moved this race to Lean R. Democratic primary turnout exceeded Republican turnout on the same ballot. The reproductive-rights coalition that won a major statewide ballot initiative two cycles ago has been reassembled around the Democratic gubernatorial candidate. A top-of-ticket federal Democratic operation is running alongside it. Without a deliberate Republican mail program, the coordinated Democratic mail operation will run between 200,000 and 400,000 votes ahead of the GOP on the absentee dimension. In a Lean R race currently inside the margin of error, that mail margin is the difference between a Republican win and a recount.
II. The Opportunity
The state has a 1.5-to-2 million-voter midterm gap — voters who showed up in the last presidential cycle but didn't show up in the last gubernatorial. The Core Target Universe within that gap is approximately 1.1 million low-propensity modeled-Republicans and Republican-leaning unaffiliated voters: registered, addressed, and dormant. State law allows campaigns and 3rd-party committees to mail unsolicited absentee-ballot applications to any registered voter — a lane Democratic infrastructure already exploits. An 800,000-voter Wave 1 program at a 35 percent application-conversion rate produces approximately 200,000 incremental Republican mail returns. In a 4 to 5 million-vote statewide race, that is a 4-to-5 percentage point swing — enough to flip any plausible Democratic win into a Republican win, or to convert a tight Republican win into a comfortable one.
III. Why Cato
Most Republican consulting firms are still pitching pre-2024 cadence mail programs. Statutory environments have changed in nearly every battleground state since the last presidential cycle. Cato is built around the new statutory environment — front-loaded applications, in-person redirect for the final week, no reliance on eliminated grace periods. We deliver diagnostic, strategy, and execution under one roof: voter-file architecture, mail vendor selection, weekly KPI reporting against universe coverage and conversion. We are built to operate as program GC across the Republican ticket — sharing voter file, mail vendor, and field investment. No campaign that ignores this lane will close a 200,000-vote opposition mail margin in the final 90 days.
The Four Diagnostic Questions
What this memo answers
I. State law
Whether the state's statutory framework permits campaigns, PACs, and 3rd-party committees to send unsolicited absentee-ballot applications to voters. In most battleground states: yes.
II. Mail history
How many people voted by mail in the state's recent presidential and gubernatorial elections, and what cohorts dominated.
III. The universe
The size and composition of the low-propensity Republican and Republican-leaning unaffiliated universe in the state — the prime mail target.
IV. The opposition
What a coordinated Democratic mail program looks like in this cycle — modeled on recent in-state ballot initiatives and federal-cycle operations.
Figure 1 · The race state
A narrowing margin in a state that was supposed to be safe
Six months from a double-digit Republican presidential win to a sub-3-point gubernatorial coin flip with a Democratic primary turnout advantage.
I
The Legal Lane on Unsolicited Mail
In which the lane Democrats already exploit turns out to be wide open to Republicans too
The statutory framework governing unsolicited absentee-ballot applications is the foundation on which any mail program is built. In most battleground states, restrictions apply only to public offices and public officials acting in an official capacity. They do not apply to campaigns, political action committees, party committees, or other private 3rd-party organizations.
This is not theoretical. In the last presidential cycle, a Democratic-aligned national organization mailed approximately several million unsolicited absentee-ballot applications across this state, generating hundreds of thousands of returned applications. The state's chief election officer publicly confirmed the legitimacy of the mailings while urging coordination on form accuracy. There has been no enforcement action against private third-party unsolicited mailers in the cycles since.
This is one of the few competitive states where a private campaign or PAC can legally drop millions of unsolicited applications without statutory friction. The recommended program treats this as a structural opportunity that the opposition already understands and exploits.
Permitted activities
Mail unsolicited absentee-ballot applications to any registered voter
Pre-fill voter name, address, DOB on the SoS-prescribed form
Include postage-paid return envelope (only public offices restricted)
Run unlimited mail / digital / SMS / phone chase reminding voters
Family member, mail carrier, or BOE staff ballot return is permitted
Hard prohibitions
Mail an actual ballot — only county BOEs issue ballots
Collect or return ballots from non-family voters (ballot-harvesting limits)
Use a non-prescribed or misleading application form
Send mail without coordinating with the SoS office on form accuracy
II
The Compressed Calendar
A statutory environment that has shifted in nearly every battleground state since the last presidential cycle
The post-Election-Day grace period for mailed ballots that existed in many states has been narrowed or eliminated in nearly every battleground jurisdiction. New laws now typically require that ballots arrive at the BOE by close of polls on Election Day. The change has followed federal executive guidance on uniform ballot-receipt deadlines and pressure from federal litigation.
For everyone running a mail program, the implication is the same: any cadence designed for a pre-2024 calendar will lose ballots in the final week. Voters who put their ballot in the mail in the final 72 hours may simply not be counted. The campaign that adapts is the one that wins those votes.
Three calendar choices separate a deadline-aware program from the equivalent of a 200,000-vote loss at scale: front-load applications (Wave 1 mid-summer, Wave 2 mid-September); front-load returns (Chase Rounds 1 through 3 by mid-October); and flip messaging in the final week to in-person delivery only.
Figure 2 · The chase window
Before recent statutory changes, after
Front-load applications. Front-load returns. Flip messaging in the final week to in-person delivery only. Three calendar choices that separate a deadline-aware program from a 200,000-vote loss.
III
The Target Universe
A 1.78 million-voter midterm gap, a 1.1 million-voter Core Universe, and the math that follows
A typical battleground state in this analysis has roughly 7.5 million registered voters. Modeled-party splits via primary participation produce approximately 31 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat, and 38 percent unaffiliated. Many states do not register voters by party — what we call "modeled R" or "modeled UAF" is shorthand for most-recent partisan primary ballot pulled.
The structural target is the midterm gap: the difference between presidential and gubernatorial-cycle turnout. The state went from approximately 5.9 million voters in the last presidential to 4.1 million in the last gubernatorial — a gap of approximately 1.78 million presidential-only voters. Distributing that drop-off conservatively across modeled-R, modeled-D, and UAF cohorts produces the figures in the funnel below.
The Core Target Universe is approximately 1.1 million voters: 890,000 modeled-R drop-off plus 215,000 R-leaning UAF drop-off. These voters are registered, addressed, and dormant — the ideal mail target. The recommended Wave 1 program scope is 800,000.
Figure 3 · From electorate to program scope
A narrowing from 7.5M to 800K
All registered voters
~7,580,000
Modeled R + UAF
~5,220,000
Modeled-R drop-off + UAF drop-off
~1,425,000
CORE TARGET — R drop-off + R-lean UAF drop-off
~1,105,000
Recommended Wave 1 program scope
~800,000
At a 35 percent application-conversion rate, an 800,000-voter Wave 1 yields roughly 280,000 returned applications and 200,000 incremental Republican mail returns by Election Day.
Scenario tool — flex the model
Move the sliders to test how Wave 1 universe size, application conversion, and ballot-cast rate combine. The forecast updates live.
800,000
35%
70%
Forecast incremental R mail returns
196,000
That is ~4.5% of projected turnout (~4.4M).
In a sub-three-point race, 200,000 votes is not a tactic. It is the entire margin.
IV
What the Opposition Will Run
In which the wrong benchmark is last cycle's losing campaign — and the right benchmark is the coalition that already won statewide
The temptation is to model the Democratic 2026 mail program against the last losing Democratic gubernatorial campaign. That is the wrong benchmark. The right benchmarks are the most recent successful statewide ballot initiative in the state — typically a reproductive-rights or labor-aligned coalition that demonstrated organizational scale — and the most recent federal-cycle Democratic operation, which has typically built the largest field and mail infrastructure ever deployed in the state.
The conservative forecast for the coordinated Democratic 2026 program, based on those operating models: 1.5 to 2.5 million unsolicited applications mailed, 600,000 to 800,000 mail returns by Election Day, 5 million-plus peer-to-peer SMS over the chase window, approximately 3,000 trained volunteers, and 200 to 400 paid early-vote organizers. If Republicans run a passive program, the structural mail margin runs against the GOP by approximately 200,000 to 400,000 votes. In a Lean R race that is currently inside the margin of error, that mail margin is enough to flip the outcome.
Figure 4 · The math
Status quo versus the Cato program
Forecasts derived from the most recent presidential-cycle baseline mail floor × coordinated-program coordination boost; Cato program assumes 35% conversion on an 800K Core Universe.
Status quo, the D mail margin runs +205,000. With the Cato program, the margin neutralizes — and mail is decided on EIP and Election Day instead.
V
The Recommended Approach
Five components, executed in coordination across the Republican ticket
The program is built around five components. Cato as program GC: data shop, list governance, vendor selection, weekly KPI reporting. The remainder is built to align with the new statutory calendar and to amortize cost across the coordinated R ticket.
i
Universe construction
Pull modeled-R + R-leaning UAF voters scored 1-of-4 or 2-of-4 on midterm propensity from a national voter-file vendor. Layer in last-presidential turnout flag to filter for "engaged in pres years, dormant in midterms" — the highest-yield segment. Output: 700K–1.0M Core Universe, 200K–300K Stretch tier.
ii
Two-wave application drop
Wave 1 mid-summer: pre-filled SoS-prescribed application, postage-paid return envelope, candidate-neutral framing. Wave 2 mid-September: targeted resend to non-responders with more campaign-aligned creative. Coordinate across the Republican ticket to share universe and amortize cost.
iii
Multi-channel chase
Mail postcards, peer-to-peer SMS, targeted digital, volunteer phones — all triggered on the BOE ballot-tracking feed. Three mail rounds during early voting. Volunteer phones in the final 14 days, the only channel that meaningfully moves conversion at the deadline.
iv
Final-week conversion to in-person delivery
In the final week, redirect outstanding-ballot voters to drop boxes and BOE offices — never USPS. Provide each voter their precinct's BOE / drop-box location and hours. Volunteer rides-to-BOE within statutory limits. The single most important deadline-aware design choice.
v
Coordination architecture
Cato as program GC. Designated 3rd-party committee for unsolicited application drops, separate from the candidate campaign committee, optimizing legal and tax structure. Joint operating agreement across the Republican ticket where applicable. Alternate architecture available on request: the same program runs cleanly for a single candidate or PAC alone. Cato sets up whichever architecture fits.
This Is What We Deliver
A 30-day diagnostic engagement.
Cato delivers the full tactical mail program — voter-file-derived universe at the precinct level, vendor recommendations with rate cards, full budget with high/medium/low scenarios, week-by-week chase calendar, and compliance memo on SoS coordination and PAC architecture — within 30 days of engagement.